Economic and Financial Review

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Activities of the manufacturing sub-sector in the first quarter of 1986
(Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Research Department, 1986-03) Industrial Studies Office, Sectorial Studies Division
A review of the activities of the manufacturing sub-sector in the first quarter of 1986.
Address at the eight Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Executive Policy Seminar.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department., 2000-12) Director, Personnel Department Personnel
The welcome address at the eight CBN Executive Policy Seminar with the theme: "Governance and the Economic Policy Environment: Nigeria's Experience". As the theme implies, this year's Seminar is aimed at examining and reviewing the whole gamut of economic policy formulation processes with a view to aligning them with the current thinking and spirit of the international code of good practices, transparency and accountability in economic management.
Address at the Quarterly Meeting/Luncheon of the Industrial Group of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Reaserch Department., 1982-09-30) Abdulkadir, A.A
This paper explains the rationale behind the difficulties in the Nigeria Chamber of Commerce between 1977-1982. The author reviews the activities of the group and appraises the performance of the industrial sector and re-assesses its short-term prospects.
Africa's integration and economic development: the journey so far
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department., 2003-12-01) Magbagbeola, N.O.
The study was on efforts made to integrate African countries and its contribution to the economic development of the region. In a quest to halt the marginalization of Africa in the world economy, African leaders have at various times made efforts to pursue African economic integration as an integral part of African unity. These efforts led to the emergence of regional economic communities (RECs), which are the building blocks of the Africa's integration project. There are currently, 14 RECs in Africa, many of which overlap. Their performance in intra-regional trade has been less than satisfactory, partly as a result of low incomes, high proportion of GDP represented by agriculture and low level of industrialization. Of the 14 RECs, in terms of pace of integration, UEMOA is the star performer, followed by ECOWAS and SADC, while the poor performers are CEPGL, ECCAS, IOC and MRU. Although the integration process may appear slow, a number of achievements have been recorded. These include subregional peace and security, infrastructural development, financial and monetary cooperation as well as liberalization of trade and free movement of people, goods and services. ------........
An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Nigeria: an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria., 2013-09) Englama, A.; Oputa, N. C.; Sanni, G. K.; Yakub, M. U.; Adesanya, O.; Sani, Z.
The paper sought to examine the dynamics underlying the high import bills in Nigeria and proffered appropriate policy recommendations. In achieving this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was utilised to estimate the aggregate import demand function for Nigeria using the quarterly data covering the period 1970 to 2011. The paper found that the coefficients of external reserves, domestic consumer prices, level of income and exchange rate were all statistically significant, suggesting that these variables were important factors determining the level of imports in Nigeria. The short-run elasticity result revealed that Nigeria's aggregate demand for imports was both price and income elastic; implying that import demand would increase as the level of economic activity and domestic prices increased. Furthermore, the coefficient of the speed of adjustment revealed that it would take about 0.05 years for imports to respond to changes in any of the explanatory variables. The paper, therefore recommended appropriate fiscal policy measures to address the high level of consumer goods imports since it accounted for about 45.0 per cent of total imports between 2006 and 2011.
An aggregate import demand function for Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2013-09) Englama, A.; Oputa, N.C.; Sanni, G.K.; Yakub, M.U; Adesanya, O.; Sanni, Z.
The paper sought to examine the dynamics underlying the high import bills in Nigeria and proffered appropriate policy recommendations. In achieving this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was utilised to estimate the aggregate import demand function for Nigeria using the quarterly data covering the period 1970 to 2011.
Agriculture and Nigeria's economic development: policies, problems and prospects
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department, 1996-12) Ogunfiditimi, T.O.
The paper discusses agriculture in Nigeria vis-à-vis the country's economic development. It also looks at the policies, problems and prospects to boost the sector. The paper concludes that Nigerians need to look inwards to bring about the needed change in the agricultural sector of the economy.
Analysis of External Debt Dynamics in ECOWAS Economies
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria., 2013-06) Chuku, A. C.
This paper recognised the importance of identifying the core determinants of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies. Using a panel dynamic generalised least squares procedure, the study sought to identify the core determinants of external debt dynamics in 12 ECOWAS economies from 1970 to 2009. Overall, the findings revealed six core determinants of external debt in ECOWAS economies. Inflation, external reserves, per capita income and real oil prices were inversely related with external debt ratio; while, GDP gap and real effective exchange rate depreciation directly affected external debt. Significant dissimilarities were observed in the influence of government size and inflation within the WAEMU and the WAMZ subsamples, implying that a synchronisation of debt and fiscal policies for the two regions might yield different outcomes. Further, the results suggested that there was a wide deviation in the initial conditions Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso from the other economies in the region.
Analysis of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department, 2013-06) Chuku, A.C.
This paper recognised the importance of identifying the core determinants of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies. Using a panel dynamic generalised least squares procedure, the study sought to identify the core determinants of external debt dynamics in 12 ECOWAS economies from 1970 to 2009. Overall, the findings revealed six core determinants of external debt in ECOWAS economies. Inflation, external reserves, per capita income and real oil prices were inversely related with external debt ratio; while, GDP gap and real effective exchange rate depreciation directly affected external debt. Significant dissimilarities were observed in the influence of government size and inflation within the WAEMU and the WAMZ subsamples, implying that a synchronisation of debt and fiscal policies for the two regions might yield different outcomes. Further, the results suggested that there was a wide deviation in the initial conditions in Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso from the other economies in the region.
Analysis of formal lending to the agricultural sector in Nigeria: 1978 - 1998
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department., 2001-09) Philip, Dayo
The objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between formal lending to agriculture and some assumed determinants of agricultural credit lending during the 1978-98 sample period. Lending by financial institutions to the agricultural sector was viewed for the purpose of model development in this study as the "supply of credit" to agriculture. Thus, the sets of determinants of agricultural credit supply to the Nigerian agricultural sector was assumed to consist of economic theory, policy and other variables. The models specified were estimated using the usual least squares procedure. The interest rate variable was negatively related to agricultural credit supply during the 1978- 86 sub-period, contrary to expectations. This was explained based on the regime of interest rate regulation prevailing prior to 1987. However, there was a net positive response of agricultural credit lending to the lending rate after interest rate deregulation from 1987, inclusive.
Analysis of Monetary Policy Decision Making among Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members at the Central Bank of Nigeria
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, 2014-09) Ezema, C. C.; Odonye, O. J.; Shitile, T. S.; Afiemo, O. O.
This paper provided an empirical analysis of policy-makers' voting patterns on interest rates in Nigeria. Employing a (pooled) Taylor rule and using real-time data obtained from published personal statements of monetary policy committee members at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the paper tests for preference heterogeneity among MPC members. The aggregate reaction function as well as individual reaction functions for MPC members were used to tests whether there is a difference between the voting patterns of internal members and that of external members of the committee. Our results suggest evidence of heterogeneity among MPC members and that the voting patterns of the internal members are statistically different from that of the external members.
Analysis of monetary policy decision making among Monetary Policy Committee members at the Central Bank of Nigeria.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2014-09) Ezema, C. C.; Odonye, O. J.; Shitile, T. S.; Afiemo, O. O.
This paper provided an empirical analysis of policy-makers' voting patterns on interest rates in Nigeria. Employing a (pooled) Taylor rule and using real-time data obtained from published personal statements of monetary policy committee members at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the paper tests for preference heterogeneity among MPC members. The aggregate reaction function as well as individual reaction functions for MPC members were used to tests whether there is a difference between the voting patterns of internal members and that of external members of the committee. Our results suggest evidence of heterogeneity among MPC members and that the voting patterns of the internal members are statistically different from that of the external members.
Analysis of the effects of policies of microfinance institutions on the technological capabilities of micro-borrowers in Nigeria.
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, 2008-09) Oji, Kalu O.
This paper examines the effects of Microfinance institutions' policies on the technological capabilities of micro-borrowers in Nigeria. Nine (9) Microfinance institutions and 250 of their clients were surveyed in 2005 and 2006. The findings showed that between 2001 and 2005 there was significant growth in clientele, savings, and loans made by the MFIs reflecting increasing demand for microfinance services.
Analysis of the effects of policies of microfinance institutions on the technological capabilities of micro-borrowers in Nigeria.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department., 2008-09) Oji, K. O.
A study was conducted to determine the effects of Microfinance institutions’ (MFIs) policies on the technological capabilities of micro-borrowers in Nigeria. Nine (9) Microfinance institutions and 250 of their clients were surveyed in 2005 and 2006. The findings showed that between 2001 and 2005 there was significant growth in the clientele, savings, and loans made by the MFIs reflecting increasing demand for microfinance services. The regression results showed that the technological capability of micro-borrowers were affected by the number of employees/workers, duration of their loans, age of major machinery/ equipment of the enterprise, and the degrees of appropriateness of the machinery/equipment to workers’ skills, and available infrastructure. The operator’s length of experience, and interest rate on MFI loans negatively influenced technological capability. In order to encourage technology accumulation through micro-financing, the paper addresses an increase in the duration of clients’ loans, spreading the repayment over a longer period, and increase in the moratorium as well as introduction of low-interest loan products for technology acquisition by the MFIs.
Anticipating the next crisis, what can early warning systems be expected to deliver? : a review.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2011-09) Koplama, Dakup D,
The paper attempts to rekindle the interest of policymakers and the general public towards having early warning systems (EWS) that would anticipate future financial crisis. The authors highlighted how the systems would realistically sound alarms and their effectiveness in various economies.
Appraisal of recent exchange rate policy measures in Nigeria.
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Reaserch Department., 1991-06) Olisadebe, E.U.
It is the purpose of this paper, therefore, to review and appraise the exchange rate policy measures, especially the most recent ones. To place the analysis in its proper perspective, the paper is divided into five sections. Section I articulates the conceptual and theoretical framework and contains a review of current naira exchange rate policy. Section II outlines the policy measures undertaken so far while the appraisal of the policy measures is attempted in Section III. Section IV suggests measures that would ensure a viable and stable naira exchange rate. The last section contains the summary and conclusions.
An apprasial of the socio-economic impact of structural adjustment policies in Nigeria
(Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department., 1989-03) Ojo, M.O.
The paper appraises the economic and social impact of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria from 1986 to early 1989, against the background of the observed downturn in the economy since the early 1980s.
Are immigrants remittance flows a source of capital for development?: a review
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria., 2006-06) Omanukwue, Phebian, N.
The paper seeks to develop a remittance model that would indicate if immigrant remittances were a source of capital flows for development.
Assessment of Nigeria's domestic debt sustainability
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2003-06) Rapu, S.C.
This paper attempts to measure the sustainable domestic debt stock level of the Federal Government of Nigeria over a period of time. This is necessary, considering the growing proportion of the cost of domestic debt service in Federal Government total expenditure. The paper addresses definitional issues about domestic debt and domestic debt sustainability relative to national output as well as the necessary policy implications. It also examined the causes, size and growth, sources and structure. Using the budget constraint model relative to GDP, the paper concludes that under the current fiscal stance of primary deficit, the Federal Government domestic debt is not sustainable. In order to achieve sustainability of domestic debt, the paper emphasized the need for the Federal Government to achieve primary surpluses of not below 0.9 percent in the next five years, as well as improvement in the growth rate of the economy, fiscal reforms and a more efficient domestic debt management through domestic debt restructuring.
Asset price movement and derivatives: implications for risk-based supervision and effective monetary policy.
(Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria., 2008-12) Adedipe, B.
The consideration of asset price movements and monetary policy has attracted a lot of attention in the last few decades, as asset prices moved upwards significantly and there arose the general perception that there are bubbles in those prices. The argument revolves around the role that monetary policy can play in this whether it can be used to prick the bubble before it is due for natural burst, or it can be designed and implemented in such manner as to prevent bubbles to grow in the first place.

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